Energy hedging 2026: Iran risk hits tight market

Goal: hedge the overall portfolio against an oil-price shock in the first half of 2026, horizon 6–18 months, risk class balanced to speculative, base currency USD with a EUR view. Thesis as of January 2026: the Iran stand-off is escalating, OPEC+ spare capacity is thin, US inventories are low and the strategic reserve has not been refilled — an unusually tight market meets a geopolitical fuse. Core: integrated majors with strong balance sheets (XOM, SHEL, TTE, EQNR), a refiner (VLO) and a tanker (FRO) as leverage; futures are watch positions, not holdings. Rule: take profits in thirds above the targets, cut the tanker leg first if the thesis fails. This is not a long-term portfolio but a hedge with an expiry date.