Energy crisis 2026: tankers, LNG, refineries outside the zone

Thesis: As long as Hormuz is only partially open, products and LNG are further restricted and around half of Russian refining capacity fails, three groups earn disproportionately: tankers (record VLCC rates of 1.27 million USD/day according to OilPrice.com 2026-09-25), refineries outside the crisis zone (diesel crack at record 106 USD/bbl, Transport Topics 2026-09-01) and LNG exporters with US gas below USD 3.10 at TTF around EUR 75. Horizon 12-18 months, speculative: The index lives from dislocation, not from growth. Catalysts: Winter gas shortage in Europe (EU storage 72%), extension of diesel export bans, SPR refill. Invalidation: A verified Hormuz deal with resumption of product and LNG transits (Iran offer from 25/09, rejected by Trump on 28/09) kills the tanker ton-mile thesis within weeks; then the file is reduced to oil majors and LNG backlog. Rules: No position above 12%, tankers out if dividend cut, refiners out if crack below $40. This is NOT a long-term deposit or an energy transition bet, but a cycle trade with an expiration date.