European Defense & Security 2026-2028: After the hype, before the orders

Thesis: The sector has given up half of its exaggeration in 2026 (Rheinmetall -50% from high, Renk -60%), while budgets are only now turning into orders - Poland and the Baltics are moving towards 5% GDP (IntelliNews, 2026-10-04), the USA is warning Europe not to let remilitarization slide (AOL/Reuters, 2026-09-08). I buy the setback in titles with confirmed guidance and full books, not the story. Catalysts: Bundeswehr framework contracts Q4 2026/Q1 2027, EU SAFE credit calls, Gripen F exports, marine tenders (TKMS, Saab). Biggest risk: Ukraine ceasefire or budget cuts in the south - Italy is already planning to reduce defense spending (Defense News, 2026-10-02); also cash burn through working capital (Rheinmetall, AD HOC NEWS 2026-08-16). Position size: max. 15% per title, Renk/TKMS/Chemring together max. 20%. Exit: Sell securities if order intake is below sales for two quarters (book-to-bill < 1) or guidance is lowered a second time.