Food Security 2026-2028: Fertilizer, Seeds, Machinery, Grain Handlers

Thesis: Two supply shocks overlap. Black Sea grain exports have ground to a virtual halt (gCaptain, 19 Aug 2026; WSJ, 24 Sep 2026) and the Hormuz closure has pushed fertilizer costs higher with CoBank seeing elevated prices through 2028 (Western Producer, 18 Aug 2026; World Politics Review, 15 Sep 2026). Winners are producers with cheap North American gas (CF, Nutrien), potash miners (Nutrien, K+S, Mosaic), seed breeders whose pricing follows grain, and grain handlers that earn on volatility (ADM, Bunge). Balanced, 3-year horizon, with machinery as the cyclical sleeve and two ETFs as ballast. Catalysts: Nutrien Investor Day 30 Nov 2026, USDA acreage report March 2027, any Black Sea ceasefire (Russia can restart 80% of terminals if attacks stop, Reuters 25 Sep 2026). Invalidation: a Black Sea plus Hormuz normalisation would cut urea and wheat 30% within a quarter; machinery names also lose if farm income falls under input-cost pressure. Rules: fertilizer sleeve capped at 35%, trim any name up 50% from entry. This is not a long-only commodity bet and not a bet on famine; it is a margin-shift trade across the food chain.