FX Macro Board: Rates, Energy Importers and the Dollar Peak

Positioning card, not a portfolio: each line is a directional view on a Yahoo FX quote with a target, a window and a kill level. Core view: the Fed delivered its first hike since 2023 on 16 Sep 2026 and signalled one more (CNBC), the ECB hiked to 2.5% on 10 Sep (CNBC) with euro-area inflation at 3.8% (CNBC, 2 Oct 2026), and the 10-year Treasury trades near 5.3%. We think the dollar is at or near a cyclical peak (DXY 101.9) because energy-importer currencies (JPY, INR, KRW, TRY) have already absorbed the oil shock while exporters (NOK, CAD, AUD) have not fully repriced. Catalysts: the last Fed hike, BOJ follow-through after the August intervention (CNBC, 20 Aug 2026), any Hormuz deal (Reuters, 30 Sep 2026). Invalidation: DXY closing above 105 means the stagflation-dollar regime (forex.com, 30 Sep 2026) is dominant and every importer-currency long here is wrong; Brent above 115 kills the JPY and INR views. Leverage in FX can wipe out an account; this card is for sizing conversations, not for copying.