Against the consensus: The Hormuz and Red Sea détente scenario

Thesis: The market prices permanent war. Iran proposed a deal to open Hormuz in 7 days on 2026-09-25 (PBS), Trump rejected it on 28/09 (NewsNation), both sides talk through mediators on 30/09 (Reuters), Egypt reports Suez Canal 'safe' (Hurriyet 2026-09-21). If Hormuz and Red Sea normalize by mid-2027, Brent falls below 80, jet fuel and bunkers fall 30%, and the hardest-pressed fuel losers turn first: airlines ('Iran headache', internationalfinance 2026-09-18), cruise (Carnival fuel +36%, stock at 16-month low, Benzinga 2026-09-28), European chemistry (BASF as a gas hostage) and travel platforms. Speculative, 12-18 months, staggered entry: one third now, two thirds only after a verified ceasefire. Hard invalidation: No deal until 2027-06-30 OR Brent weekly close above 115 USD = close entire file, do not repurchase. Rules: Max. 10% per title, stop 20% below entry for individual stocks, JETS ETF as basis. This is NOT a quality index (most stocks are heavily indebted), not a dividend strategy and not a prediction that peace is coming - just a bet that it is not priced in.