India Growth After the Oil Shock: Banks, IT, Consumption, Infrastructure

Goal: a speculative INR portfolio of fourteen NSE-listed leaders bought into the September 2026 rout – Nifty 50 fell about 6% in September, its worst month in six (Business Standard/Moneycontrol, 1 Oct 2026), the rupee sits near 96 per dollar and India's oil import bill jumped 48% on the Hormuz crisis (Yahoo Finance, 22 Sep 2026). Horizon 3 years, risk class speculative; the RBI is expected to hike the repo rate toward 5.50% on 7 Oct 2026 with BofA seeing 100 bp through H1 2027 (Economic Times/Times of India, 28-30 Sep 2026). Currency risk is central: base currency INR, a USD or EUR investor has already lost ~10% on the rupee in a year and could lose more while Brent stays above 100; a ceasefire and oil below 80 would flip that into a tailwind. Rules: scale in over three tranches, max 10% per name, stop adding to IT if US AI deflation deepens, hold through the rate cycle. Not a short-term momentum trade and not an ADR basket – note HDFC/ICICI/Infosys also trade as US ADRs (HDB, IBN, INFY) for those who want USD settlement.