Latin America & Commodities 2026-2029: Copper, Lithium, Oil, Agriculture, Banks

Target: Speculative multi-currency portfolio based on BRL via Brazil (B3), Mexico (BMV) and Chile/US ADRs, which thrives on the 2026 commodity super cycle: copper at a record high (WSJ, 2026-09-07), Brent at 102 USD, lithium carbonate, on the other hand, has fallen below 140,000 CNY/t (SMM, 2026-09-17) - so Copper/oil as momentum, lithium as contrarian. Horizon 3 years. Macro: Selic after fifth consecutive cut at 13.75% (Reuters, 2026-09-16; Copom minutes, 2026-09-22), October 2026 presidential election with Lula ahead, runoff likely (Reuters, 2026-10-03); Banxico holds 6.50% (Mexico News Daily, 2026-09-25), USMCA review pending (2026-09-24). Currency risk is threefold: base BRL (USD/BRL 5.22), plus MXN positions (USD/MXN 18.15) and USD ADRs - a EUR investor also bears EUR/USD. Rules: max. 10% per title, commodity beta max. 50% of the portfolio, stop in the event of an election shock (BRL >5.80), halve profits in copper from the sell zone. This is not a dividend portfolio or an ETF replacement: drawdowns of 30% are in the plan.