Luxury & Leisure Rebound 2026

Set up in January 2026 as a one-year consumer-recovery basket. The inflection signals are all there: LVMH returned to growth in Q3 2025 on improving China demand (Reuters, 14 Oct 2025), Hermes grew 9.6% (Reuters, 21 Oct 2025), Richemont beat on sales and 'shrugged off tariffs' (Reuters, 13 Nov 2025), Carnival just reported a record year and reinstated its dividend (19 Dec 2025), Ryanair's H1 profit rose 42% (3 Nov 2025). The Fed has been cutting since September 2025, Brent sits in the low $60s and the dollar is softer, which is a tailwind for European exporters' US customers. I pair the quality names with three turnaround stories (Nike, Lululemon, Estee Lauder) where new management has already reset expectations. Balanced risk, 12 months, no leverage. This is a cyclical bet on the Western and Chinese consumer, nothing more.