Macro watch commodities: directional theses Q4 2026 to mid-2027

This is NOT a portfolio, but a positioning map: Each line is a directional thesis on a Yahoo future contract with a target, time window and invalidation. Basic thesis: The energy dislocation (diesel crack 106 USD/bbl record, Transport Topics 2026-09-01; TTF ~75 EUR at EU storage at 20-year low, OilPrice 2026-08-27) is late in the cycle, crude oil itself is almost at pre-war levels after mine clearance, products and gas are lagging behind. Therefore: Products-Cracks short-biased, Gas long-biased, Agriculture long over the Black Sea crisis (gCaptain 2026-08-19, WSJ 2026-09-24), Metals long over Gulf aluminum and copper near all-time highs (Reuters 2026-08-26). Precious metals: Fed increased on 2026-09-16 for the first time since 2023 (CNBC), real yields near record (BullionVault 2026-09-28) - Buy gold only after the last hike. Invalidation per thesis in the grade; Total invalidation: a verified Hormuz deal (Iran offer PBS 25/09, Trump rejection 28/09) turns energy and agricultural theses at the same time. Targets are quoted contract prices (USD/bbl, USD/MMBtu, EUR/MWh, USc/bu, USD/oz, USD/lb). Nothing here is an investment recommendation; Leverage products can mean total loss.