Parking lot with plan: EUR money market and short bonds 2026/27

Thesis: After the ECB increase in the deposit rate to 2.5% (CNBC/Guardian 2026-09-10) and Eurozone inflation of 3.8% (CNBC 2026-10-02), you will earn 2.4-2.6% in EUR risk-free again, while stock and energy markets depend on the course of the war. The index parks liquidity in UCITS ETFs with durations under one year (overnight/€STR swaps, government bonds 0-6 months and 0-1 year, ultra-short IG corporate bonds) and holds 20% inflation-indexed Euro government bonds as a hedge against longer energy inflation. The plan: Goldman (2026-09-25) does not expect ECB rates above 3%, Morningstar (2026-08-10) expects cuts in 2027 - as soon as the ECB signals the peak, it will be gradually extended into 1-3 year government bonds and reallocated into risk cards in the event of a Hormuz deal. Invalidation: If inflation rises above 4.5% and the ECB raises above 3.25%, the linker positions (duration ~8 years) lose in the short term; the overnight positions then win. Rules: No issuer risk over 25% per provider, no duration over 3 years before the peak signal, price targets are carry calculations (Acc shares) or close to zero for Dist shares. This is NOT a return portfolio and not a replacement for deposit insurance, but rather cash management with action triggers.