Peak Fear Is In: Fading $100 Oil

Goal: a tactical 3-9 month bet that the oil shock of March has peaked and that the market overshoots to the downside once Hormuz flows normalise. Risk class speculative, this is a trade, not a retirement portfolio. Facts on the table: the two-week US-Iran ceasefire announced April 7-8 sent crude to its biggest one-day drop since 2020 and Brent below $95, the Islamabad talks failed on April 12-13 and the US started blockading Iranian ports on April 13, yet Brent is still trading around $95, well off the March highs. My read: both sides are now negotiating under pressure, demand destruction at $100-plus is real, Saudi and UAE pipelines bypass the strait, and the strategic reserves are open. I pair a leveraged short-crude ETF with the biggest losers of the spike (airlines, cruise, chemicals), long duration bonds for the disinflation leg and India as the oil-importing equity market. Invalidation: Brent closes above $110 for a week or the blockade is still in place on June 1, then I cut everything.