Power grid & energy transition 2026–2029: transformers, cables, turbines, storage

Thesis: No matter whether AI, electric cars or heat pumps - everything depends on the network, and the network is the bottleneck. McKinsey calls it the 'Transformer Supercycle' (2026-09-18), the NYT asks why the component on which all power depends is so difficult to build (2026-08-17). Siemens Energy reports record orders of $20.6 billion and nearly 70 GW of gas turbine backlog, GE Vernova $176 billion backlog, Quanta $53 billion — visibility to 2029. I mix manufacturers (ENR, GEV, SU, Hitachi), cable (PRY, NEX), Bauer (PWR, HUBB, ETN) and regulated grid operators (NG, Elia) as a stabilizer, plus Fluence as a small memory game. Catalysts: EU grid package implementation, US transmission expansion, hyperscaler power contracts, factory openings (Hitachi Mississippi $528 million). Biggest risk: interest rates — Fed and ECB hiked in September 2026, 10-year yields at 24-year high (Reuters, 2026-10-01); This hits utility multiples and project financing first. Position size: max. 12% per title, Fluence max. 3%, network operators together 15-20%. Exit: Manufacturers sell if book-to-bill falls below 1.0; Network operators hold as long as the regulated return on equity is not reduced.