Southern Europe 2026: Banks at peak interest rates, tourism after record summer

Target: Speculative EUR portfolio from eleven banks and three tourism infrastructure stocks from Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece. Thesis: The ECB increased to 2.5% on 2026-09-10 and euro inflation is picking up (Reuters, 2026-09-30) - Net interest margins remain high for longer while the southern banks' NPL ratios are at record lows and Moody's/Scope upgraded Greece in September 2026 (19-2026-09-29). Tourism: Spain 58.1 million visitors by July, record (Independent, 2026-09-02), Greece +15% (GreekReporter, 2026-09-18), Aena 34.9 million passengers in August (Reuters, 2026-09-15) - but jet fuel at Brent 102 USD depresses airlines (Aegean H1 loss, Reuters 2026-09-14). Horizon 3 years. Currency risk: EUR basis, all securities in EUR, no direct FX risk; Santander/BBVA are indirectly linked to BRL/MXN/TRY. Rules: Banks max. 70%, individual stocks max. 12%, Greece max. 20%, realize consolidation profits (MPS/BPM/UniCredit) in sell zone. No dividend-only portfolio, no hotel chain bet – tourism via airports and IAG as infrastructure leverage.