Travel Rebound 2026: Airlines, Cruises & Leisure

Set up on 12 Feb 2026. Thesis: 2026 is the year travel earnings finally catch up with demand. Jet fuel kept falling in January (Aviation Week, 23 Jan 2026) while fares are going up — Ryanair lifted its outlook on strong demand and better Boeing deliveries (WSJ, 26 Jan 2026), TUI reported its best start to a financial year (TUI Group, 10 Feb 2026) and Royal Caribbean raised its profit forecast and its dividend by 50% (Reuters, 29 Jan; PR Newswire, 10 Feb 2026). The Bank of England held at 3.75% but signalled cuts (Reuters, 5 Feb 2026), which helps UK consumer spending. I am buying the laggards (Lufthansa, Wizz, Carnival, Norwegian) alongside the quality names; speculative, 12-month horizon, sized so that a 25% drawdown is survivable. The risk I am watching is a Middle East flare-up that spikes oil and closes airspace — airlines have already suspended Israel flights (Jerusalem Post, 24 Jan 2026).