Detours make money: tankers, liners, forwarders, rail

Goal: earn money by rewiring world trade routes without betting directly on the price of oil. Time horizon 6-18 months, risk class speculative. Since 28/02, traffic through Hormuz has collapsed, on 04/03 Iran officially declared the strait closed, VLCC rates reached all-time highs on 03/03, and Maersk stopped all Hormuz transits on 02/03; At the same time, the return of the liner shipping companies to the Red Sea, which was announced in February, was canceled again on February 27th (Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd via Cape). In addition, refineries and pumping stations have been burning in Russia since mid-February, which requires product tankers, and the China-Europe Railway is reporting a volume increase of 25 percent for January-February (Xinhua, 12/03). Every ton that travels longer ties up tonnage and increases freight rates; Freight forwarders make money from complexity, not from prices. Weighting: Tankers as leverage, lines and freight forwarders as ballast, Brent only as watch; Oil producers deliberately not included, they are in a different portfolio. Invalidation: Hormuz is completely open and the Red Sea is safe, then the rates collapse within weeks.